Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 23.111452 25.133468 27.311599 29.842576 32.715604 35.890827 39.686562
2026-02-01 20.024230 22.794929 25.982026 29.959427 34.847565 40.736220 48.488489
2026-02-08 17.708491 20.899313 24.768411 29.892984 36.640338 45.430210 58.120451
2026-02-15 15.923840 19.352466 23.694839 29.745048 38.209884 50.057585 68.754066
2026-02-22 14.510579 18.069624 22.745181 29.550711 39.600949 54.630965 80.482505
2026-03-01 13.421001 17.068280 22.015462 29.503357 41.124095 59.632211 94.315715
2026-03-08 12.517818 16.212706 21.366729 29.444799 42.564452 64.741566 109.980144
2026-03-15 12.030548 15.877070 21.401033 30.385298 45.715520 73.420910 135.883402
2026-03-22 11.290031 15.105147 20.702430 30.061399 46.645978 78.241874 155.629328
2026-03-29 10.709679 14.516168 20.216189 30.006416 48.016286 84.219118 181.062755
2026-04-05 10.268789 14.097438 19.947799 30.270786 50.001513 91.968726 215.721669
2026-04-12 9.778341 13.564749 19.447484 30.063083 51.021978 97.849665 248.803523
2026-04-19 9.328977 13.076236 18.995731 29.923117 52.230546 104.732069 291.575045
2026-04-26 8.940168 12.658069 18.627333 29.896915 53.689220 112.777998 347.024241
2026-05-03 8.564738 12.237013 18.220381 29.751484 54.870192 120.546597 410.971598
2026-05-10 8.214381 11.834680 17.814032 29.560902 55.920623 128.379941 487.001192
2026-05-17 7.889247 11.454212 17.416947 29.344236 56.876270 136.350694 578.405360
2026-05-24 7.613869 11.140211 17.113825 29.284025 58.208879 146.142917 704.216426
2026-05-31 7.358712 10.845588 16.823835 29.218689 59.522858 156.524044 865.250893
2026-06-07 7.257846 10.806249 16.993553 30.144705 63.639138 179.426810 1245.489598
2026-06-14 6.998787 10.480280 16.609085 29.822039 64.281496 189.022462 1527.148706
2026-06-21 6.790866 10.232872 16.356086 29.766364 65.684844 202.797337 1985.333628
2026-06-28 6.634372 10.067591 16.247782 30.027029 68.085182 222.821552 2820.081069